Kazakhstan records $2.4bn current-account surplus: what it does and does not mean for the tenge

On 9 October, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy reported a $2.4 billion current-account surplus for January–June 2026, equal to 1.6% of GDP. The same six months of 2025 showed a $3.6 billion deficit, so the year-on-year improvement was close to $6 billion.

What changed

The current account covers trade in goods and services, income flows and current transfers. The ministry says the goods-trade surplus rose from $7.7 billion to $16.2 billion. Under the National Bank’s balance-of-payments method, goods exports rose 27.1% to $48.5 billion, while imports rose 6.2% to $32.3 billion.

A surplus reduces the need to finance external payments with new borrowing or capital inflows. It does not guarantee tenge appreciation. Commodity prices, market demand, budget operations and monetary policy also matter, and the second half of the year may look different.

The ministry also cites the $13.1 billion deficit for the whole of 2025. That full-year figure is not directly comparable with a six-month result. The first-half comparison is the useful one; the next test is whether export growth lasts through year-end.

Source: official announcement.