UNEP says emissions must fall 45% by 2035 for a return to 1.5°C

On 21 October, the UN Environment Programme released its Emissions Gap Report 2026. It finds that global warming is set to exceed 1.5°C, but steep emissions cuts could limit how high and how long the overshoot lasts.

In its lowest-possible-overshoot scenario, global greenhouse-gas emissions fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all from 2025 levels. Peak warming around mid-century would be 1.7–1.8°C, with roughly a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

UNEP estimates that fully implementing current national pledges would cut emissions only 11–15% by 2035 and leave a pathway of about 2.6°C warming this century. These are modelled scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. The cover is a conceptual illustration of the energy transition.

Primary source: https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-return-15degc. Cover: AI-assisted illustration by Shanraq.