IMF sees 3.1% global growth but a widening divide: who benefits?

The International Monetary Fund presented its October World Economic Outlook at the annual meetings in Bangkok. In its October 13 statement, the IMF projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. These are forecasts, not measured outcomes for next year.

The aggregate conceals a widening gap. Economies benefiting from AI investment or favourable terms of trade are holding up better. Energy importers and lower-income countries face more difficult conditions. The fund expects inflation of about 4.7% this year, driven largely by energy and food prices.

The IMF flags persistent Middle East tensions, higher sovereign bond yields and renewed trade disputes. AI creates risks in both directions: inflated expectations could trigger a market correction, while realised productivity gains could lift growth sooner than expected.

The global number is not a Kazakhstan forecast. For Kazakhstan, the more direct channels are export prices, import costs, inflation and financing conditions. Those determine how the international outlook reaches budgets, businesses and households.

Source: https://mediacenter.imf.org/news/imf—world-economic-outlook-annual-meetings–2026/s/22f94667-d194-473b-87b2-34c692b5a5a3