Trade rises as growth slows: UNCTAD projects 2.6% world expansion in 2026

UN Trade and Development released its Trade and Development Report on 9 October. It projects global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, while real trade in goods and services may grow by about 4%. These are different measures: cross-border trade can expand faster than total output.

Uneven gains

UNCTAD expects growth in developing economies to slow from 4.7% last year to 4% this year. It points to resilience in much of Asia but says technological and policy barriers distribute gains unevenly. A single global average conceals large differences between regions.

The report also highlights artificial intelligence. AI can create new products and services and lift some trade, yet computing infrastructure and returns are concentrated among relatively few countries and firms. Joining that growth may be costly for economies without control over infrastructure or data.

The 2.6% figure is a forecast, not a measured full-year outcome. Demand, financial conditions and trade policy could alter it. For Kazakhstan, the useful question is not only how much it exports but how much value and technology remain at home.

Source: official announcement.