The prediction ledger
Every forecast made on this site is recorded here with the date it was made, and later judged in public: hit, partial, miss. The misses stay.
- 0 hit
- 0 partial
- 0 missed
- 4 open
Accuracy is the share of judged forecasts that came true; a partial hit counts as a half. Open forecasts are not counted.
Still open
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Open made 20.08.26 · due 31.07.27
The World Bank will bring its Kazakhstan series into line with the WHO estimate: measles vaccination coverage of 99% for 2023 and 93% for 2024 will be replaced by 69% and 62%. On the day the article was published WHO had already revised these figures, while the World Bank series, last updated on 13 July 2026, still carried the earlier vintage.
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Open made 03.08.26 · due 01.01.32
China's nominal GDP will not durably exceed America's by the early 2030s. At the time of writing: China $19.5tn, United States $30.8tn (World Bank, 2025). Test: any lead must hold two consecutive years. No lead by 2032 — the prediction holds.
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Open made 02.08.26 · due 01.01.35
By 2032–2035 three counters converge at once: US debt service exceeds all discretionary spending together; the dollar's share of global reserves falls durably below 50%; the gold share of central-bank reserves and non-dollar settlement keep growing. At the time of writing: interest on the debt is about $1.0tn against $885bn on defence — that line is already crossed. All three converge, hit; two, partial; one or none, missed.
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Open made 03.08.26 · due 03.08.36
Over the next ten years China will pursue Taiwan by coercion rather than by landing: blockade, grey-zone pressure, diplomatic isolation, pressure from within. Hit if by August 2036 there has been no full-scale invasion and coercion remained the principal instrument. Missed if an amphibious operation takes place. Partial if neither.